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Accuracy, Evasion and Criticals
Accuracy, Evasion, and Criticals are three mechanics intertwined together, representing the ability of a ship to hit another one. The formulas presented on this page are still subject to change as more testing is done.
 Please note that all formulas between [math]\displaystyle{ \lfloor \ \rfloor }[/math] are rounded down.
Hit Rate
The hit rate is the probability of an attack hitting the target. It's the same for all attacks as well as abyssals. It stems from the difference between the Accuracy of the attack and the evasion of the target.
Hit Rate 

[math]\displaystyle{ \text{Hit %} = \bigl\lfloor \text{Hit}_\text{cap} \bigr\rfloor + \text{Acc}_\text{proficiency} +1 }[/math] Where, the Capped Hit Rate [math]\displaystyle{ \left( \text{Hit}_\text{cap} \right) }[/math] is: [math]\displaystyle{ \text{Hit}_\text{cap} = \text{cap}_\text{max}\left( \text{cap}_\text{min} \left(\text{Accuracy}_\text{atk}  \text{Evasion}_\text{postcap}\right) \times \text{Morale}_\text{defender} \right) }[/math]
Hit Rate Caps There is a minimum and maximum hit rate in the game.

Notes:
 Hit rate has an effective minimum of 11% and a maximum of 97%.
 Plane proficiency is the only factor that allows a ship to go beyond 100% hit rate.
 The effect of sparkle is reduced the closer Hit rate is to the caps.
Critical Hit Rate
Critical Hits are hits that do more damage than normal. The critical hit rate stems directly from hit rate with different proportion depending on the attack type.
Critical Rate  

[math]\displaystyle{ {Crit}_\text{rate} = \lfloor \text{Mod}_\text{type} \times \sqrt{\text{Hit}_\text{cap} + \text{Acc}_\text{proficiency}} \rfloor + \text{Crit}_\text{proficiency} + 1 }[/math] With:

Hit Rate & Critical Roll
There is a single roll for both normal and critical hits.
For example, for a hit rate of 50% on a shelling attack, the crit rate is then 10%. The roll can be represented as followed:
Roll Example  

Critical Hit 10%  Hit 40%  Miss 50% 
The normal hit rate is 40% and the remaining 10% is the critical hit rate.
 Notes
 The effect of accuracy and sparkling on crit rate is limited
 Because it stems directly from hit rate, it is also affected by the caps.
 With low accuracy, a disproportionately high amount of successful hits will be "criticals".
Damage Animations
When a ship takes a hit, the game will display the damage animation following in 3 possible outcomes (e.g. with 25 damage):
 miss (no damage),
 25 (normal damage)
 25 Critical hit! (critical damage).
However, the damage status displayed is mostly defined by the amount of damage dealt, and not the real damage status happening in the game.
 Due to this, displayed critical hits and misses are rarely true critical hits or misses.
The displayed damage status is as follows:
Display Behavior  

Damage Dealt  Damage Displayed 
Miss  Miss displayed normally 
0  Always displayed as a miss 
≤14  Never displayed as Critical hit! 
[15;39]  Criticals displayed normally 
≥40  Always displayed as Critical hit! 
 Notes
 A patch exists to fix this misleading behavior and display the real damage status, see here.
Accuracy
Below are the common variables used in all accuracy formulas:
 [math]\displaystyle{ \text{Level} }[/math] is the level of the attacking ship.
 [math]\displaystyle{ \text{Luck} }[/math] is the luck of the attacking ship.
 [math]\displaystyle{ \text{Acc}_\text{equip} = \text{Acc}_\text{equip base} + \text{Acc}_\text{equip bonus} + \text{Acc}_\bigstar }[/math] is the total accuracy provided by an equipment, with:
 [math]\displaystyle{ \text{Acc}_\text{equip base} }[/math] is the base accuracy of the equipment,
 [math]\displaystyle{ \text{Acc}_\text{equip bonus} }[/math] is the visible accuracy bonuses,
 [math]\displaystyle{ \text{Acc}_\bigstar }[/math] is the equipment's accuracy gained from Improvement,
 [math]\displaystyle{ \text{Mod}_\text{fit} }[/math] is the Hidden Fit Bonuses bonuses or penalties when applicable.
 [math]\displaystyle{ \text{Mod}_\text{formation} }[/math] is the formation modifier for the applicable attack. See Combat for more details.
 Modifiers for single fleet against combined fleet are unknown.
[math]\displaystyle{ \text{Mod}_\text{formation} }[/math]  

Formation  Day Shelling & Carrier Attacks 
Torpedo Attacks  ASW ^{[1]}  Night Battles 
Line Ahead  1.0  1.0  1.0  1.0 
Double Line  1.2  0.8  1.2  0.9 
Diamond  1.0  0.4  1.0  0.7 
Echelon  1.2  0.75  1.2  0.9 
Line Abreast  1.2  0.3  1.2  0.8 
Vanguard (Top)  0.8  0.7  1.0  ? 
Vanguard (Bottom)  1.2  0.9  1.1  ? 
Exception  
Vanguard (Top) vs DD  0.880.8 * 1.1  0.840.7 * 1.2  N/A  ? 
Vanguard (Bottom) vs DD  1.321.2 * 1.1  1.080.9 * 1.2  N/A  ? 
Double Line vs Line Abreast  1.0    1.0   
Echelon vs Line Ahead  
Line Abreast vs Echelon  
Echelon vs Combined Fleet    0.6    0.8? 
Combined Fleet^{[2]}  
Combined Fleet Cruising Formation 1  ?  ?  1.25  ? 
Combined Fleet Cruising Formation 2  1.0  1.0  ?  1.0 
Combined Fleet Cruising Formation 3  0.8  0.4?  ?  0.8 
Combined Fleet Cruising Formation 4  1.1  1.2  ?  1.1 
 [math]\displaystyle{ \text{Mod}_\text{vanguard} }[/math] is an accuracy malus when the opposite fleet is in Vanguard formation. See below for more details.
 It is still unknown if this affects night battles, airstrikes, ASW, or LBAS.
 [math]\displaystyle{ \text{Mod}_\text{morale} }[/math] is the morale modifier of the attacking ship. Morale is referring to the value of attacking timing, not the value before entering battle. See Morale and Fatigue for more details.
[math]\displaystyle{ \text{Mod}_\text{morale} }[/math]  

Sparkled  1.2 
Normal  1.0 
Orange  0.8 
Red  0.5 
 Notes
 Because of the number of modifiers to accuracy ingame, it is not trivial to increase accuracy. Therefore it is more important to prioritize attack power (firepower, torpedo, ASW, airstrike, LBAS, ...).
Combat
In no particular order.
Daytime Shelling  

This formula applies to both surface shelling and carrier attacks during daytime combat. It does not apply to carrier airstrikes. [math]\displaystyle{ \text{Accuracy}_\text{shelling} = \bigg\lfloor \bigg( \Big( \text{Acc}_\text{base} + 2 \times \sqrt{\text{Level}} + 1.5 \times \sqrt{\text{Luck}} + \sum_{\text{All Equips}} \text{Acc}_\text{equip} \Big) \times \text{Mod}_\text{vanguard} \times \text{Mod}_\text{formation} \times \text{Mod}_\text{morale} + \text{Mod}_\text{fit} \bigg) \times \text{Mod}_\text{spotting} \times \text{Mod}_\text{AP} \bigg\rfloor }[/math] With:

Shelling Support 

This formula applies to surface shelling and carrier attacks during shelling support. [math]\displaystyle{ \text{Accuracy}_\text{shelling support} = \bigg\lfloor \Big( 64 + 2 \times \sqrt{\text{Level}} + 1.5 \times \sqrt{\text{Luck}} + \sum_{\text{All Equips}} \text{Acc}_\text{equip base} \Big) \times \text{Mod}_\text{vanguard} \times \text{Mod}_\text{formation} \times \text{Mod}_\text{morale} \bigg\rfloor }[/math]

Torpedo Attacks  

This formula only applies to opening and closing torpedo attacks during day battles. [math]\displaystyle{ \text{Accuracy}_\text{torpedo} = \left( \text{Acc}_\text{base} + 2 \times \sqrt{\text{Level}} + 1.5 \times \sqrt{\text{Luck}} + \sum_{\text{All Equips}} \text{Acc}_\text{equip} + \left \lfloor{\frac{\text{Attack}_\text{torp}}{5}} \right \rfloor + \text{Mod}_\text{ship} \right) \times \text{Mod}_\text{vanguard} \times \text{Mod}_\text{formation} \times \text{Mod}_\text{morale} }[/math] With:

Aerial Combat  

This formula applies to the airstrikes performed during the aerial combat phase and support. Although ASW support functions like an airstrike for damage, it does not use this formula. [math]\displaystyle{ \text{Accuracy}_\text{airstrike} = \text{Acc}_\text{base} }[/math]

AntiSubmarine Warfare 

This formula applies to all ASW attacks in the combat phase and support. [math]\displaystyle{ \text{Accuracy}_\text{ASW} = \left( 80 + 2 \times \sqrt{\text{Level}} + 1.5 \times \sqrt{\text{Luck}} + \sum_{\text{All Equips}} \text{Acc}_\bigstar + 2 \times \sum \text{ASW}_\text{sonar} \right) \times \text{Mod}_\text{vanguard}? \times \text{Mod}_\text{formation} \times \text{Mod}_\text{morale} \times \text{Mod}_\text{synergy} }[/math] With:

Night Battles  

This formula applies to all night battle attacks. [math]\displaystyle{ \text{Accuracy}_\text{NB} = \bigg( \text{Mod}_\text{contact} \times \Big( 69 + \text{Mod}_\text{star shell} \Big) + 2 \times \sqrt{\text{Level}} + 1.5 \times \sqrt{\text{Luck}} + \sum_{\text{All Equips}} \text{Acc}_\text{equip} \bigg) \times \text{Mod}_\text{vanguard}? \times \text{Mod}_\text{formation} \times \text{Mod}_\text{morale} \times \text{Mod}_\text{special} + \text{Mod}_\text{searchlight} + \text{Mod}_\text{fit} }[/math] With:

LandBased Air Squadron
This formula applies to attacks made by LandBased Air Squadrons. The accuracy is calculated independently per squadron.
LBAS 

This formula is still under investigation, results are not yet consistant with ingame test. [math]\displaystyle{ \text{Accuracy}_\text{LBAS} = \left( ( {\text{Acc}_\text{equip}} + \text{Acc}_\text{Sp} ) \times 7 + 95 \right) \times \text{Mod}_\text{vanguard}? \times \text{Mod}_\text{morale} \times \text{Mod}_\text{CF} + \text{Acc}_\text{proficiency} }[/math] ^{[1]} With:

 Notes
 For / Interceptors, the and stats are respectively "AntiBomber" and "Interception" and not Accuracy and Evasion.
Evasion
Evasion has two caps depending on the calculated base evasion of the ship. Base evasion is calculated as follows:
Evasion  

[math]\displaystyle{ \text{Evasion}_\text{precap} = \bigl\lfloor \left( \text{Evasion}_\text{ship} + \sqrt{2\text{Luck}} \right) \times \text{Mod}_\text{formation} \bigr\rfloor }[/math] With:
The evasion is then capped as follows:
Capped evasion is then modified by postcap modifiers: [math]\displaystyle{ \text{Evasion}_\text{postcap} = \biggl\lfloor \text{Mod}_\text{searchlight} \times \left( \text{Evasion}_\text{cap} + \text{Mod}_\text{sonar} + \text{Mod}_\text{CA} + \text{Mod}_\text{DD}  \text{Mod}_\text{fuel} \right) \biggr\rfloor }[/math] With:

 Notes
 The speed of the fleet is supposed to play a role in evasion. Currently, said increase is either nonexistent or too small to test,
 Using AO equipped with Underway Replenishment is a way to mitigate fuel penalties,
 Because of the evasion cap, trying to increase evasion above 65 has negligible effects,
 As most ships are capable of reaching 65 , trying to increase evasion using precap means has little to no effect, this includes:
 Increasing the (e.g. with boilers, even if improved),
 Luckmodding ,
 Choosing a weaker formation with an evasion bonus (except for Vanguard).
 Historical evasion exists but is not measured due to the limitedtime nature of events.
Special Cases
Vanguard Formation
This mechanic's effects are still under evaluation, so values are subject to change.
When a fleet is in Vanguard Formation it gives an accuracy malus to the opposite fleet. This malus is determined by 4 factors:
 Ship position in the fleet,
 Ship type,
 Normal or event map,
 Combat phase,
It is the same for the Abyssals.
It is called [math]\displaystyle{ \text{Mod}_\text{vanguard} }[/math] in the accuracy formulas above.
[math]\displaystyle{ \text{Mod}_\text{vanguard} }[/math]^{[1]}  

Shelling Phase  
Fleet Position  NonDD  DD (normal map)  DD (event) 
1  0.95  0.95  0.95 
2  
3  0.8  0.6  
4  
5  0.86  0.69  0.52 
6  0.8  0.64  0.48 
7  0.7    <0.4 
Torpedo Phase  
1  0.9  0.9  0.9 
2  
3  0.77  0.65  0.55 
4  0.67  0.58  0.475 
5  0.64  0.5  0.4? 
6  0.55  0.42  0.35? 
7  0.51    ? 
ASW  
?  
Night Battle  
? 
Debuffs
During Events, some Debuffs have been measured to give some additional bonuses of Accuracy and Evasion .
 Please, refer to the current Event page for up to date information.
Arctic Map Bonuses
On all "arctic maps", namely all World 3 maps, as well as some Event maps, the Arctic Camouflage (+ Arctic Equipment) gives:
20.3cm Japanese Guns
So far, no hidden evasion bonus has been observed from equipping any gun on any ship.
 This idea comes from a misinterpretation of an ambiguous tweet by the devs [4].
PT Imps
AntiPT Imp  

Unlike most standard Abyssals, PT Imp Packs are very small and fast.
During Events, some special bonuses may be added, with "historical" ships and equipment gaining some accuracy bonuses^{[8]}.
 
 
[edit] 
See Also
