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'''Recent Updates'''
+
 
* Dec 31, 2014
  −
** ASTRE (artillery spotting trigger rate estimate) Project mid-term report working in progress. This will serve as a preliminary, experimental proof for the credibility of the trigger chance estimates.
  −
* Dec 19, 2014
  −
** [http://kancolle.wikia.com/wiki/User_blog:Homuhomu123/Translation_on_Kuubowokyuu%27s_Exp%27ts_on_the_Trigger_Rates_of_Artillery_Spotting Translation] added for the Japanese source data ([http://kankoregouchin.blog.fc2.com/blog-entry-23.html 艦これ-チラ裏検証]), from which fundamental assumptions were made
      
== Introduction: ==
 
== Introduction: ==
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In brief, Artillery Spotting consists of two types of attack: Cut-In '''[CI] '''& Double Attack '''[DA]'''. When activated, the attacking ship receives a damage output (post-cap) & accuracy bonus. More detailed explanations could be found on the page [http://kancolle.wikia.com/wiki/Combat Game Mechanics -> Artillery Spotting] .
 
In brief, Artillery Spotting consists of two types of attack: Cut-In '''[CI] '''& Double Attack '''[DA]'''. When activated, the attacking ship receives a damage output (post-cap) & accuracy bonus. More detailed explanations could be found on the page [http://kancolle.wikia.com/wiki/Combat Game Mechanics -> Artillery Spotting] .
 +
      Line 47: Line 44:  
The first 5 factors are derived from [http://kankoregouchin.blog.fc2.com/blog-entry-23.html 艦これ-チラ裏検証-] ''(click [http://kancolle.wikia.com/wiki/User_blog:Homuhomu123/Translation_on_Kuubowokyuu%27s_Exp%27ts_on_the_Trigger_Rates_of_Artillery_Spotting here] for a translated version)'' and can be verified in future experiments. In addition, these hypothesis will be used as ''fundamental assumptions'' in experiment data analysis.:
 
The first 5 factors are derived from [http://kankoregouchin.blog.fc2.com/blog-entry-23.html 艦これ-チラ裏検証-] ''(click [http://kancolle.wikia.com/wiki/User_blog:Homuhomu123/Translation_on_Kuubowokyuu%27s_Exp%27ts_on_the_Trigger_Rates_of_Artillery_Spotting here] for a translated version)'' and can be verified in future experiments. In addition, these hypothesis will be used as ''fundamental assumptions'' in experiment data analysis.:
 
# '''<u>Being the flagship / </u>'''旗艦  (+15% for both rates)
 
# '''<u>Being the flagship / </u>'''旗艦  (+15% for both rates)
# '''<u>Radar & type / </u>'''電探  (+30% CI chance, +13% DA chance, maximum)
+
# '''<u>Radar & type / </u>'''電探  (+30% CI chance, +10% DA chance, maximum)
 
# '''<u>Air Supremacy or Superiority / </u>'''制空権の状態  (-12% for both if only Air Superiority is achieved)
 
# '''<u>Air Supremacy or Superiority / </u>'''制空権の状態  (-12% for both if only Air Superiority is achieved)
 
# '''<u>Fleet total LoS / </u>'''艦隊合計索敵値/  (+8% DA rate, +10% CI rate, per 100 additional LoS)
 
# '''<u>Fleet total LoS / </u>'''艦隊合計索敵値/  (+8% DA rate, +10% CI rate, per 100 additional LoS)
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- BB(V) equipped with 2 x Main & 1 seaplane has '''DA rate ~ 50%'''.
 
- BB(V) equipped with 2 x Main & 1 seaplane has '''DA rate ~ 50%'''.
   −
- CA(V) quipped with 2 x Main & 1 seaplane has '''DA rate ~50% ??'''
+
- CA(V) quipped with 2 x Main & 1 seaplane has '''DA rate 45 ~ 47%'''
    
- BB(V) equipped with 1 x Main + 1 x Secondary & 1 seaplane has '''CI rate ~ 50%'''
 
- BB(V) equipped with 1 x Main + 1 x Secondary & 1 seaplane has '''CI rate ~ 50%'''
   −
- CA(V) equipped with 1 x Main + 1 x Secondary & 1 seaplane has '''CI rate ~50% ??'''
+
- CA(V) equipped with 1 x Main + 1 x Secondary & 1 seaplane has '''CI rate 45 ~ 47%'''
 
  −
- It was suspected that CLs & some CAs have 5% lower DA/CI base rate ??
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4. If we replace the extra seaplane with a '''radar,''' and compare the results to those from the standard situation:
 
4. If we replace the extra seaplane with a '''radar,''' and compare the results to those from the standard situation:
   −
- DA rate rises by 4 % ~ 13 % approximately, depending on the '''''accuracy stat''''' of the radar ??
+
- DA rate rises by 3 % ~ 13 % approximately, depending on '''''both stat''''' of the radar ??
   −
- CI rate rises by ~30% (surface radar) or ~26% (AA radar), depending on the '''''LoS stat''''' of the radar ??
+
- CI rate rises by ~30% (surface radar) or ~26% (AA radar), depending on '''''LoS stat''''' of the radar ??
   −
===== - List of radars with their Estimated DA/CI rate modifier (Require further verification) =====
+
===== - List of radars with their Estimated DA/CI rate modifier (Best fit values) =====
 
{| class="article-table" style="width: 500px;" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1"
 
{| class="article-table" style="width: 500px;" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1"
 
|-
 
|-
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|-
 
|-
 
|No.22 Surface
 
|No.22 Surface
|''+27%''
+
|''+24%''
 
|''+5''
 
|''+5''
|<nowiki>+4%</nowiki>
+
|<nowiki>+3%</nowiki>
 
|<nowiki>+3</nowiki>
 
|<nowiki>+3</nowiki>
 
|-
 
|-
 
|No.22 Kai-4 Surface
 
|No.22 Kai-4 Surface
|''+27%''
+
|''+25% ''
 
|''+5''
 
|''+5''
|<nowiki>+13%</nowiki>
+
|<nowiki>+10% (??)</nowiki>
 
|<nowiki>+8</nowiki>
 
|<nowiki>+8</nowiki>
 
|-
 
|-
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|'''''+30%'''''
 
|'''''+30%'''''
 
|'''''+10'''''
 
|'''''+10'''''
|'''+13%'''
+
|'''+10%'''
 
|'''+8'''
 
|'''+8'''
 
|-
 
|-
 
|FuMO25 AA Radar
 
|FuMO25 AA Radar
|''+26%''
+
|''+26% ''
 
|''+9''
 
|''+9''
|<nowiki>+14% ( ?? )</nowiki>
+
|<nowiki>+8% ( ?? )</nowiki>
 
|<nowiki>+10</nowiki>
 
|<nowiki>+10</nowiki>
 
|-
 
|-
 
|No.14 AA Radar
 
|No.14 AA Radar
|''+25%  ??''
+
|''+27%  ??''
 
|''+5''
 
|''+5''
|<nowiki>+6% ( ?? )</nowiki>
+
|<nowiki>+4% ( ?? )</nowiki>
 
|<nowiki>+4</nowiki>
 
|<nowiki>+4</nowiki>
 
|-
 
|-
 
|No.21 AA Radar
 
|No.21 AA Radar
|''+22%  ??''
+
|''+22%  ''
 
|''+4''
 
|''+4''
 
|( ?? )
 
|( ?? )
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- Night Scout ''(+ 3 LoS)'' gives less bonus on DA chance (-2%) ??
 
- Night Scout ''(+ 3 LoS)'' gives less bonus on DA chance (-2%) ??
   −
- DA chance bonus depends on both stats ??
+
- DA chance bonus depends on their LoS stats ??
    
- Different seaplanes have no effect on CI chance ??
 
- Different seaplanes have no effect on CI chance ??
   −
- '''''This part is currently neglected in DA/CI rate estimation.'''''
+
<s>- '''''This part is currently neglected in DA/CI rate estimation.'''''</s>
   −
===== - List of seaplanes with their Estimated DA rate modifier (Extremely rough estimates, NOT used in calculation) =====
+
===== - List of seaplanes with their Estimated DA rate modifier (Rough estimates) =====
 
{| class="article-table" style="width: 500px;" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1"
 
{| class="article-table" style="width: 500px;" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1"
 
|-
 
|-
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|Night Scout
 
|Night Scout
 
|'''+3'''
 
|'''+3'''
|'''-2%  ??'''
+
|'''-2%  '''
 
|<nowiki>+1</nowiki>
 
|<nowiki>+1</nowiki>
 
|-
 
|-
 
|Type 0 Recon
 
|Type 0 Recon
 
|'''+5'''
 
|'''+5'''
|'''+0% ??'''
+
|'''+0% '''
 
|<nowiki>+1</nowiki>
 
|<nowiki>+1</nowiki>
 
|-
 
|-
|Ar196 Kai
+
|Zuiun
|'''+5'''
  −
|'''+0%  ??'''
  −
|<nowiki>+2</nowiki>
  −
|-
  −
|Zuiun (634 Air)
   
|'''+6'''
 
|'''+6'''
|'''+1%  ??'''
+
|'''+1%  '''(??)
 
|<nowiki>+1</nowiki>
 
|<nowiki>+1</nowiki>
 
|-
 
|-
 
|Type 0 Observation
 
|Type 0 Observation
 
|'''+6'''
 
|'''+6'''
|'''+2%  ??'''
+
|'''+2%  '''
 
|<nowiki>+2</nowiki>
 
|<nowiki>+2</nowiki>
 
|}
 
|}
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== Artillery Spotting Trigger Rate Estimate: (Beta ver.) ==
 
== Artillery Spotting Trigger Rate Estimate: (Beta ver.) ==
NOTE: As mentioned before, these calculation only serves as rough estimates on your ship's artillery spotting chances. More credible tests (Sample size > 170) are required to come up with a better formula. Deviations from actual test results are supposed to be less than 5%, otherwise reworking on the formula itself should be considered. This does not include effects from fatigue, HP status(中破), and undetermined factors like formation, level differences (>>10), a few special ships (esp. CA) or maps, etc. The estimates for which their true probability is closer to 50% will be less accurate, and vise versa.
+
NOTE: As mentioned before, these calculation only serves as rough estimates on your ship's artillery spotting chances. More credible tests (Sample size > 170) are required to come up with a better formula. Deviations from actual test results are supposed to be less than 5%, otherwise reworking on the formula itself should be considered. This does not include effects from fatigue, HP status(小破・中破), and undetermined factors like formation, level differences (>>10), a few special ships (esp. CA) or maps, etc. The estimates for which their true probability is closer to 50% will be less accurate, and vise versa.
    
Here's an example calculation in chart format, with sign convention:
 
Here's an example calculation in chart format, with sign convention:
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(+10%)
 
(+10%)
 
|
 
|
<s><+0%></s>
+
<+2%>
 
|}
 
|}
 
==== Sample Calculation for DA: ====
 
==== Sample Calculation for DA: ====
1)  Fuso Kai, AS+, FLoS = 300, equipped with 2 main, #32 radar & Type 0 Obsv. will have a:
+
1)  Fuso Kai, AS+, FLoS = 300, equipped with 2 main, #32 radar & Zuiun. will have a:
 
* DA chance of ...
 
* DA chance of ...
* 50%''(<s>BB</s> Base)'' + 13%''[Radar Modifier] ''+ 0%''(LoS Modifier) <s>+1%<Seaplane></s>'' = '''63%'''
+
* 50%''(BB Base)'' + 10%''[Radar Modifier] ''+ 0%''(LoS Modifier) +1%<Seaplane>'' = '''61%'''
*
+
 
 +
 
 
2)  Prinz Eugen Kai, AS+, FLoS = 300, equipped with 2 main, FuMO32 & Ar196 will have a:
 
2)  Prinz Eugen Kai, AS+, FLoS = 300, equipped with 2 main, FuMO32 & Ar196 will have a:
 
* DA chance of ...
 
* DA chance of ...
* 50%''(<s>CA</s> Base)''+ 16%''[Radar Modifier]''+ 0%''(LoS Modifier)'' <s>+0''%<Seaplane>''</s>'' ''= '''66%'''
+
* 47%''(<s>CA</s> Base)''+ 8%''[Radar Modifier]''+ 0%''(LoS Modifier)'' +1''<nowiki>%<Seaplane>'</nowiki>''' ''''''''= '''56%'''<nowiki/>'''
*
+
 
3)  Chikuma Kai, AS+, FLoS = 400, equipped with 2 main, #22 radar & Type 0 Recon will have a:
+
 
 +
3)  Chikuma Kai, AS+, FLoS = 400, equipped with 2 main, #22 radar & Type 0 Observation will have a:
 
* DA chance of ...
 
* DA chance of ...
* 50%''(<s>CA</s> Base)''+ 4%''[Radar Modifier]''+ 8%''(LoS Modifier) <s>+ </s>''<s>0''%<Seaplane>''</s>= '''62%'''
+
* 47%''(CA Base)''+ 3%''[Radar Modifier]''+ 8%''(LoS Modifier) ''+2''%<Seaplane> ''= '''60%'''
*
+
 
 +
 
 
4)  Haruna Kai, {flagship}, AS+, FLoS = 300, equipped with 2 main, #22 radar & Type 0 Recon will have a:
 
4)  Haruna Kai, {flagship}, AS+, FLoS = 300, equipped with 2 main, #22 radar & Type 0 Recon will have a:
 
* DA chance of ...
 
* DA chance of ...
* 50%''(<s>BB</s> Base)''+ 15%''{Flagship Modifier}'' + 4%''[Radar Modifier]''+ 0%''(LoS Modifier)''= '''69%'''
+
* 50%''(BB Base)''+ 15%''{Flagship Modifier}'' + 3%''[Radar Modifier]''+ 0%''(LoS Modifier) ''= '''68%'''
*
+
 
 +
 
 
5)  Mutsu Kai, {flagship}, '''AS''', FLoS = 300, equipped with 2 main guns, #22 radar & Type 0 Recon will have a:
 
5)  Mutsu Kai, {flagship}, '''AS''', FLoS = 300, equipped with 2 main guns, #22 radar & Type 0 Recon will have a:
 
* DA chance of ...
 
* DA chance of ...
* 50%''(<s>BB</s> Base)''+ 15%''{Flagship Modifier} - 12%(Air Superiority)'' + 4%''[Radar Modifier]''+ 0%''(LoS Modifier)''= '''57%'''
+
* 50%''(BB Base)''+ 15%''{Flagship Modifier} - 12%(Air Superiority)'' + 3%''[Radar Modifier]''+ 0%''(LoS Modifier)''= '''56%'''
*
+
 
 +
 
 +
 
 
==== Sample Calculation for CI: ====
 
==== Sample Calculation for CI: ====
 
1)  Fuso Kai, AS+, FLoS = 300, equipped with 1 main + 1 sec, #22 Surface radar & seaplane will have a:
 
1)  Fuso Kai, AS+, FLoS = 300, equipped with 1 main + 1 sec, #22 Surface radar & seaplane will have a:
 
* CI chance of ...  
 
* CI chance of ...  
* 50%''(<s>BB</s> Base)''+ 30%''[Radar Modifier]''+ 0%''(LoS Modifier) ''= '''80%'''
+
* 50%''(<s>BB</s> Base)''+ 24%''[Radar Modifier]''+ 0%''(LoS Modifier) ''= '''74%'''
*
+
 
2)  Atago Kai, AS+, FLoS = 300, equipped with 1 main + 1 sec, #14 AA radar & seaplane will have a:
+
 
 +
2)  Atago Kai, AS+, FLoS = 300, equipped with 1 main + 1 sec, FuMO25 radar & seaplane will have a:
 
* CI chance of ...
 
* CI chance of ...
* 50%''(<s>CA</s> Base)''+ 25%''[AA Radar Modifier]''+ 0%''(LoS Modifier) ''= '''75%'''
+
* 50%''(<s>CA</s> Base)''+ 26%''[Radar Modifier]''+ 0%''(LoS Modifier) ''= '''76%'''
*
+
 
 +
 
 
3)  Mutsu Kai, AS+, FLoS = 400, equipped with 1 main + sec, AP shell & seaplane will have a:
 
3)  Mutsu Kai, AS+, FLoS = 400, equipped with 1 main + sec, AP shell & seaplane will have a:
 
* CI chance of ...
 
* CI chance of ...
 
* 50%''(<s>BB</s> Base)''+ 20%''[AP Shell Modifier]''+ 10%''(LoS Modifier) ''= '''80%'''
 
* 50%''(<s>BB</s> Base)''+ 20%''[AP Shell Modifier]''+ 10%''(LoS Modifier) ''= '''80%'''
*
+
 
 +
 
 
4)  Kumano Kai, AS+, FLoS = 400, equipped with 1 main + 1sec, #32 Surface radar & seaplane will have a:
 
4)  Kumano Kai, AS+, FLoS = 400, equipped with 1 main + 1sec, #32 Surface radar & seaplane will have a:
 
* CI chance of ...
 
* CI chance of ...
 
* 50%''(<s>CA</s> Base)''+ 30%''[Radar Modifier]''+ 10%''(LoS Modifier)''= '''90%'''
 
* 50%''(<s>CA</s> Base)''+ 30%''[Radar Modifier]''+ 10%''(LoS Modifier)''= '''90%'''
*
+
 
==== Sample Calculation for Hybrid Setup: (Lower Credibility) ====
+
 
 +
 
 +
==== Sample Calculation for Hybrid Setup: (Rough estimate) ====
 
1)  Mutsu Kai, AS+, FLoS = 400, Type 0 Recon, AP shell setup with 41cm x 2:
 
1)  Mutsu Kai, AS+, FLoS = 400, Type 0 Recon, AP shell setup with 41cm x 2:
 
* Total artillery spotting rate = 70%''(BASE)'' + 5%''(LoS Modifier)'' = '''75%'''.
 
* Total artillery spotting rate = 70%''(BASE)'' + 5%''(LoS Modifier)'' = '''75%'''.
 
** CI% = 38%''(AP BASE)'' + 5%''(LoS Modifier)'' = '''''43%'''''
 
** CI% = 38%''(AP BASE)'' + 5%''(LoS Modifier)'' = '''''43%'''''
 
** DA% = 32%''(AP BASE) = '''32%'''''
 
** DA% = 32%''(AP BASE) = '''32%'''''
*
+
 
 +
 
 
2)  Kongou Kai Ni, AS+, FLoS = 400, Type 0 Obsv., AP shell setup with 46cm x 2:
 
2)  Kongou Kai Ni, AS+, FLoS = 400, Type 0 Obsv., AP shell setup with 46cm x 2:
 
* Total artillery spotting rate = 70%''(BASE)''+ 5%''(LoS Modifier) + 3%<Type 0 Obsv.> ''= '''78%'''
 
* Total artillery spotting rate = 70%''(BASE)''+ 5%''(LoS Modifier) + 3%<Type 0 Obsv.> ''= '''78%'''
 
** CI% = 43%''(AP BASE, Overload) ''+ 5%(LoS) ='' '''48%'''''
 
** CI% = 43%''(AP BASE, Overload) ''+ 5%(LoS) ='' '''48%'''''
 
** DA% = 27%''(AP BASE, Overload) + 3%(Obsv.Seaplane) = '''30%'''''
 
** DA% = 27%''(AP BASE, Overload) + 3%(Obsv.Seaplane) = '''30%'''''
+
 
+
 
 
3) Nagato Kai, '''AS''', FLoS = 400, Type 0 Obsv., AP shell setup with 46cm x 2:
 
3) Nagato Kai, '''AS''', FLoS = 400, Type 0 Obsv., AP shell setup with 46cm x 2:
 
* Total artillery spotting rate = 70%''(BASE) - ''18%''(Air Superiority)''+ 5%''(LoS Modifier) + 3%<Type 0 Obsv.> ''= '''60%'''
 
* Total artillery spotting rate = 70%''(BASE) - ''18%''(Air Superiority)''+ 5%''(LoS Modifier) + 3%<Type 0 Obsv.> ''= '''60%'''
 
** CI% = 43%''(AP BASE, Overload) - ''11%''(Air Superiority)''+ 5%(LoS) = '''''37%'''''
 
** CI% = 43%''(AP BASE, Overload) - ''11%''(Air Superiority)''+ 5%(LoS) = '''''37%'''''
 
** DA% = 27%''(AP BASE, Overload) - ''7%''(Air Superiority)+ 3%(Obsv.Seaplane) = '''23%'''''
 
** DA% = 27%''(AP BASE, Overload) - ''7%''(Air Superiority)+ 3%(Obsv.Seaplane) = '''23%'''''
*
+
 
 +
 
    
== Effectiveness of Artillery Spotting ==
 
== Effectiveness of Artillery Spotting ==
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- Read more: [http://kancolle.wikia.com/wiki/User_blog:Nainodel/All_About_Firepower#How_much_damage_will_I_deal.3F Comparative study on DA/CI with sample enemies]  .     
 
- Read more: [http://kancolle.wikia.com/wiki/User_blog:Nainodel/All_About_Firepower#How_much_damage_will_I_deal.3F Comparative study on DA/CI with sample enemies]  .     
 +
     
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